HYBE Poised for Record Performance on BTS Tour Resumption
Key Metrics
| Metric | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₩B) | 2,255.6 | 2,649.9 | 4,238.3 | 3,783.5 |
| Operating Profit (₩B) | 184.0 | 49.3 | 212.4 | 480.9 |
| EPS (₩) | 225 | 5,673 | 4,066 | 10,434 |
| PER (×) | 859.56 | 58.17 | 57.80 | 22.52 |
| Source: Hana Securities |
HYBE is positioned for record-breaking performance in 2026, driven by the resumption of BTS's global world tour and the accelerating growth of newer IP artists. With the company's valuation at historical lows—2026E PER at 22-23 times—market concerns appear fully priced in, creating a potential upside opportunity as the fundamental story plays out.
Revenue Outlook: BTS Tour as Primary Catalyst
The resumption of BTS's global world tour starting in Q2 2026 is expected to generate explosive indirect revenue growth. The tour will expand to North America, Europe, South America, and Southeast Asia throughout the second half, with stadium-level performances driving significant ancillary revenue across music sales, merchandise, and platform engagement.
The tour impact is particularly notable when comparing revenue projections: 2026 revenue is forecast at ₩4,238.3 billion, representing a 60% increase from 2025. This growth trajectory positions HYBE for its strongest financial performance in company history.
Diversification Strategy: Beyond BTS Dependency
While BTS remains a key driver, HYBE's strategic focus on diversifying its artist portfolio is bearing fruit:
- Cortis (new boy group): Achieved 2.31 million album sales in just 9 months since debut, ranking 5th on Billboard Artist Charts
- LE SSERAFIM (local IP): Reached 33 million monthly listeners on Spotify, ranking #1 globally among girl groups, with multiple tracks entering Billboard Hot 100
These newer artists are reducing HYBE's dependency on its senior artists while demonstrating strong global appeal, particularly in Western markets.
Business Model Evolution
HYBE's business structure continues to diversify, with the 2025 revenue breakdown showing:
- Music/Streaming: 29%
- Concerts: 29%
- MD/IP Licensing: 22%
- Content: 10%
- Others: 10%
The company is also optimizing its cost structure by transforming its headquarters space into an MD popup store, reducing external leasing and one-time fixed costs. This operational efficiency improvement, combined with economies of scale, has been confirmed through improved operating margins despite one-time accounting costs in Q1.
Competitive Position and Valuation
HYBE's valuation appears attractive compared to peers, with 2026E PER of 22.52 times compared to JYP Entertainment (15.3×) and SM Entertainment (14.2×). However, HYBE's higher platform revenue differentiates it from competitors, justifying a potential premium.
Outlook and Risks
The investment case for HYBE rests on three key pillars:
- BTS's world tour and associated revenue streams
- Successful expansion of newer IP artists in global markets
- Continued growth of Weverse platform-based indirect revenue
However, investors should monitor several risks:
- Profitability deterioration of senior artists as their careers mature
- Failure to establish strong fandoms for new IP investments
- Recurrence of human capital risks (such as the Min Hee-jin incident)
- The critical variable for medium-term upside: successful acquisition of additional BTS-level IP to achieve ₩200 billion in operating profit
HYBE's fundamentals remain robust excluding one-time costs, with the MD strategy change requiring continued monitoring for sustained profitability improvement.