7/24 Korea Market Morning Briefing — Foreign Spot Buying vs Futures Selling, Caution Over US-Driven Volatility

KOSPI closed at 7,096.89 on July 23, up 4.40% from 6,797.70 on the previous day. KOSDAQ also rose 5.22% to 790.28. While both markets rebounded together, the larger gain in KOSDAQ indicates that the previous day's large-cap-centered risk sentiment expanded into broader growth domains.

KOSPI trading value reached approximately 26.9 trillion KRW, with foreign investors net buying 2.14 trillion KRW. Institutional investors registered a net buy of 97.6 billion KRW, whereas retail investors net sold 2.21 trillion KRW. In KOSDAQ, foreign investors net bought 167.5 billion KRW and institutions net bought 64.3 billion KRW, while retail investors net sold 237.3 billion KRW. In both markets, foreign and institutional buying absorbed retail selling.

However, in the derivatives market, foreign investors net sold 2,289 contracts of KOSPI200 futures. As foreign buying in spot markets diverged from selling in futures, whether this rebound marks a trend reversal requires monitoring follow-up spot buying and futures position stabilization.

The core focus of yesterday's flow was foreign buying concentration in semiconductor mega-caps. News reports also highlighted that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose 3-4% each, ranking among top foreign net buy targets. While market-wide foreign buying aligned with sector-level semiconductor sentiment recovery, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures traded lower in US overnight hours, making the preservation of early gaps a key checkpoint for Friday's domestic opening.

Among key DART disclosures from the previous day, KB Financial Group's decisions to execute a treasury stock acquisition trust contract and issue write-down contingent capital securities stood out. As these involve shareholder returns and capital raising simultaneously, actual stock price impacts require further review of acquisition size, period, and issuance conditions in original filings. In addition, multiple disclosures regarding mergers, treasury shares, rights offerings, and convertible bonds were filed, calling for clear distinction of dilution and governance variables in mid-to-small cap equities. (Source: DART)

A 3-day query result revealed no rating upgrades or downgrades as of the previous day. Although new credit evaluation results for companies such as Meritz Financial Group were issued, they were not categorized as directional rating changes in this briefing.

As of July 23, the 3-year Treasury bond yield stood at 3.917% and the 10-year yield at 4.392%, yielding a 47.5bp term spread. The AA- corporate bond 3-year yield was 4.609%, with a credit spread of 69.2bp over the 3-year Treasury. Interest rate levels continue to exert influence on stock valuation pressures and relative strength between financial and growth sectors. (Source: Bank of Korea ECOS)

On the external front, reports of the US Treasury maintaining Korea on the FX monitoring list, Middle East tensions, rising crude oil prices, and AI investment profitability debates came into focus. Consequently, US index futures recorded ES -1.13%, NQ -1.48%, and YM -1.05% as of Korea morning time. Key observation points domestically include whether foreign spot inflows persist and how KRW weakness and oil price hikes transfer to export and domestic sectors.

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