Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) Comprehensive Analysis Report
Equity Research · Comprehensive Analysis · 2026-07-31
Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) Comprehensive Analysis
Analysis Date: 2026-07-31 (JST)
Base Price: $180.71 (7/30 Close)
Market Cap: ~$150B
Industry: Enterprise SaaS (CRM)
Purpose: Purchase Review
Current Price (7/30)
$180.71
-4.07% Daily
YTD Return
-31.8%
52W Range $146.32 ~ $269.11
Forward P/E
12.8x
Based on FY27 EPS $14.13
FY26 FCF
$14.4B
FCF Margin 34.7%
Consensus Target
$241.7
+33.8% Upside (53 Analysts)
Next Earnings
9/2
Q2 FY27 Report
1. Verdict — TACTICAL BUY (Scale-In), Score 6.5/10
VerdictTACTICAL BUY
As the world's #1 CRM SaaS leader, fundamentals remain top-tier (34.7% FCF margin, 5 consecutive beats), but the stock has plummeted -32% YTD, compressing valuation multiples to historical lows. The primary downward driver is SaaSpocalypse fear, while Agentforce ARR $1.2B (+205%) demonstrates tangible AI monetization. "SaaSpocalypse"(AI SaaS ) , Agentforce ARR $1.2B(+205%) AI . 7/30 (-4.1%) · . (1M +15.4%) 200 , 9/2 — , Scale-In Accumulation .
: " ( ·AI ) (··FCF Raised) " — 9/2 . Valuation 12.8x(FWD) , +34%.
Comprehensive Scorecard
| Evaluation Metric | Weight | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals | 2.5 | 2.0 | FCF 34.7%, GAAP 21.5%, 5 Surprise, $11.8B |
| Valuation | 2.5 | 2.0 | FWD P/E 12.8x·PEG 0.78·EV/EBITDA 13.9x — , |
| Growth Prospect | 2.0 | 1.0 | ~9% , FY27 +11% , Agentforce +205% |
| Technical Momentum | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1M +15.4% ·MA50 , MA200 ·$187-190 |
| Market Sentiment | 1.5 | 0.5 | Buy (+34% ) vs MS Lowered· , P/C 1.24 |
| Overall | 10.0 | 6.5 | TACTICAL BUY — Scale-In Accumulation |
2. Company Overview — What is Salesforce?
1999 Marc Benioff 1 CRM() SaaS . (Sales), (Service), (Marketing), (Commerce) , Slack·Tableau·MuleSoft·Informatica ·· . FY2026 Revenue $41.5B, $150B .
FY2026 Revenue
$41.5B
+9.6% YoY
Revenue
77.7%
SaaS
GAAP
21.5%
FY21 2.1% → 10x
$42.5B
$25B ASR , D/E 29%
x
$0.44/
~0.9% (FY24 )
FY30
$63B
Revenue
(Q1 FY27 New System)
| Segment | Details | Q1 FY27 Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agentforce Apps | Sales / Service / Marketing / Commerce + Slack — AI | $6.91B | +7% |
| Data 360 · | Data Cloud, Informatica, MuleSoft, Tableau — ·· | $3.68B | +23% |
Source: Salesforce Q1 FY27 . System(FY26): Sales $9.0B(+8%) / Service $9.8B(+8%) / Platform·Slack $8.9B(+23%) / Marketing·Commerce $5.4B(+3%) / Integration·Analytics $6.2B(+8%).
3. Recent Earnings — 5 Consecutive Beats & AI Acceleration
Q1 FY2027 (2026. 4. 30 Ended, 5/27 Released)
| Metric | Value | YoY | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $11.13B | +13.3% | Informatica ~4pt |
| GAAP EPS | $3.88 | +50% | $3.13 +24% Surprise |
| GAAP EPS | $2.42 | +52% | — |
| GAAP Op Margin | 34.8% | +250bps | |
| cRPO () | $33.6B | +14% | Metric Healthy |
| FCF | $6.56B | +4% | Q1 |
Agentforce (AI ) — Metric: ARR $1.2B (+205% YoY) (1 $800M → 7 $1B ) · AI+Data ARR $3.4B · AWU( ) 3.8B (+111% QoQ) · $1M+ New 98( ) · $72M ELA, McAfee ServiceNow Agentforce ITSM . Benioff " " Assessment.
FY2027 Guidance (Q1 Released Raised)
| Revenue | GAAP EPS | Op Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 | $11.27–11.35B (+10~11%) | $3.25–3.27 | — |
| FY27 | $45.9–46.2B (+11%) | $14.06–14.12 | GAAP 34.3% |
, FY27 FCF/OCF Guidance 4~5% Lowered (2 9~10% → 5 4~5%) — $25B (ASR) . KRW Q1 $27.5B( $27.1B + x $365M), ASR YoY -10%.
FY2026 (2026. 1. 31 Ended)
| Metric | FY2026 | YoY | Metric | FY2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $41.5B | +9.6% | GAAP EPS | $7.80 | +23% |
| GAAP EPS | $12.52 | — | FCF | $14.4B | +16% |
| cRPO | $35.1B | +16% | Total RPO | $72.4B | +14% |
4. Fundamental Deep Dive — Growth Deceleration vs. Profitability Explosion
CRM FY2022~FY2026 5 (+24.7% → +9.6%) (GAAP 2.1% → 21.5%, FCF 19.9% → 34.7%) . (Slack·Tableau·MuleSoft·Informatica) " → " . FCF $14.4B 80% KRW(+x) KRW.
Metric (TTM, 7/30 )
| Metric | Metric | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 77.6% | 21.8% | |
| 18.7% | ROE (TTM) | 16.9% | |
| TTM OCF | $15.2B | TTM FCF | $16.6B |
| + | $11.8B | 1.18 |
5. Valuation — Historical Low Multiples & Discount Reality
-32% CRM . FY P/E FY24 66x → FY26 27x , Current Trailing 20.9x / FY27 FWD 12.8x / FY28 11.6x. PEG 0.78 .
(7/30 )
| Multiple | Current | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 20.9x | FY26 27x → |
| Forward P/E (FY27) | 12.8x | EPS $14.13 |
| Forward P/E (FY28) | 11.6x | EPS $15.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9x | — |
| PEG | 0.78 | 1 = Assessment |
| P/S () | ~3.6x | FY21 |
| x | 0.93% | payout 19.6% — |
(trailing P/E, )
| Company | Market Cap | P/E (TTM) | EV/EBITDA | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | $153B | 18.2x | 46.3x | 18.9% |
| ServiceNow (NOW) | $103B | 85.6x | 119.1x | 7.5% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $2,771B | 19.4x | — | 39.7% |
| Adobe (ADBE) | $104B | 15.2x | 42.6x | 25.9% |
NOW·MSFT·ADBE , CRM . "SaaSpocalypse" , CRM 12.8x(FWD) . , Assessment " " .
(53 Analysts, 7/30)
$241.72
+33.8% vs Current
$236
$160 ~ $475
34/5/12/2
Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell
BUY
Citigroup Raised(7/1), Guggenheim Raised
Lowered: Morgan Stanley 7/21 $287→$185 (Equal Weight, " — 2H FY27") · CLSA 7/20 New Hold $165 · RBC 7/26 Hold $210. Raised : Evercore $250 · Goldman $242 · HSBC $356. Source: stockanalysis.com, marketbeat.com.
6. Technical Analysis — Bounce Phase vs. Downtrend Boundary
6/22 52 $146.32 7/24~7/29 4 +21% (AI ), 7/30 $187-190 -4.1% . MA(5/10/20/50) x 200($205) — .
RSI (14)
57.8
~,
MACD
+3.03
—
Stoch %K/%D
73/86
—
%B
88%
($184) —
1M / 3M
+15.4% / +2.4%
6M -14.9% / 1Y -31.8%
(5/20)
1.18x
/
| Category | Level | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | $211.34 | 3 — |
| Resistance 1 | $187.44 | 7/29 $190.18 — , MA200($205) |
| Support 1 | $171.65 | MA50($170.9) — |
| Support 2 | $164.33 | 7 |
| Support 3 | $155~156 | 6 |
| 52W Low | $146.32 | 6/22 — ( ) |
(8/21~9/11 )
/ 1.24 ( ) . ATM($180) 8/21 $8.82 vs $7.56 . $175(1,583)·$170(1,097) $170-175 . 9/2 .
7. Key Debate — "SaaSpocalypse" Fear vs. AI Monetization Reality
7/30 : ① 7/29 FOMC + Warsh -1,100pt ( ATH -10%), ② -7.45% (AI CAPEX ) , ③ 7/27 +7% , ④ Morgan Stanley Lowered . . MSFT +14.8% — AI vs AI .
Bull — AI
- Agentforce ARR $1.2B (+205%) — AI Revenue
- 5 Surprise, GAAP EPS +50% — Analysts
- McAfee ServiceNow —
- FWD P/E 12.8x·PEG 0.78 — ,
- $25B ASR + $50B — -10% YoY, EPS
- $241.7 (+34%), Citigroup·Guggenheim Raised
Bear —
- ~9% — Informatica
- OpenAI "Presence" AI — UiPath -11%
- MSFT Copilot·Teams·Dynamics, ServiceNow
- FCF Guidance 4~5% Lowered — ASR
- 13F — "Agentforce Gap"(Revenue )
- Morgan Stanley " 2H FY27" —
: SaaSpocalypse CRM ( + ) . AI SaaS , · CRM (Agentforce ARR +205% ). ~9% , 9/2 (cRPO, New, Guidance Raised) .
8. Catalyst Calendar
| Timing | Event | Key Verification Points |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Q2 FY27 Released ( EPS $3.27, Revenue $11.32B) | Agentforce ARR, cRPO , FY27 Guidance Raised — |
| Q3 FY27 (11 ) | 3 | $25B ASR , FCF |
| 9 | FOMC | — |
| AI (→) | 7/27 CRM +7%·NOW +8%·Workday +10% — | |
| Agentforce New/ ELA | $72M , ServiceNow |
9. Key Risks (FY2026 10-K Based)
- : Revenue $40B+ ~9% — Market Sentiment· ( )
- AI : OpenAI , Sierra AI-first , — "SaaSpocalypse"
- : Microsoft(Copilot·Dynamics·Teams), ServiceNow ; Tableau·Commerce
- AI : Agentforce / , AI ·
- : IT , (Warsh ), — (1.18)
- : $42.5B (ASR ) FCF , (Informatica·Fin)
10. Accumulation Strategy — 3-Tier Scale-In
$180.71 (7/30 ). (+15.4% 1M) . $187-190 9/2 3 .
Tier-1 Entry · 30%
$172 ~ $180
Near Current Price — 7/30 $175.90 + MA50($171) . 2 .
Tier-2 Entry · 30%
$164 ~ $171
6 ($164.33) + MA50 — .
Tier-3 Entry · 40%
$188+
$187.44 · , 9/2 Surprise + Guidance Raised .
Stop-Loss / Warning
$146
52W Low($146.32) = . $164 ( ).
| Target (T) | Price | vs. Current | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | $211 | +17% | $211.34 + MA200 — 1 |
| T2 | $241 | +33% | ($241.72) |
| T3 | $269 | +49% | 52W — |
(9/2 , 3~6)
| Scenario | Probability | Trajectory | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | Agentforce + Guidance Raised + AI → $187-190 , | $210 ~ $240 |
| Base | 45% | $170~190 — , | $170 ~ $190 |
| Bear | 25% | SaaSpocalypse / / → $164·$155 | $146 ~ $160 |
: ① 9/2 1~2( 60%) , 3(40%) . ② Surprise "" (FY26 Q4 +25% Surprise ) , 2~3 . ③ $187.44 $190 .
11. Data Sources
- Salesforce Q1 FY27 (2026-05-27): investor.salesforce.com
- Salesforce Q4/FY26 (2026-02-25): investor.salesforce.com
- FY26 (10-K): q4cdn.com
- : stockanalysis.com · marketbeat.com
- Morgan Stanley -35%: 247wallst.com
- 7/27 AI : 247wallst.com
- 7/30 : nypost.com · tradingview.com
- Agentforce ARR $1B: tikr.com · vs : techtimes.com
- · Metric: ginlix-data (price_data MCP, 2024-07~2026-07 ), fundamentals MCP (/), (ginlix-data)
This report is provided for informational research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions and responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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